A Question of Trust

On November 6, 2024, while the world had its eyes on the United States of America where Donald Trump had just won the presidential election for the second time, a political spectacle of a different kind was taking place here in Germany. An event maybe not of the same international impact as the U.S. elections, but dramatic enough to steal Mr. Trump the show. At least for the day. At least in Germany.

What had happened? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had asked the Federal President Steinmeier to fire his finance minister Christian Lindner after endless and fruitless discussions and disputes over the German federal budget. After three very difficult and mostly frustrating years for the German so-called traffic-light coalition ("Ampelkoalition"), the coalition had officially failed. The remaining parties no longer hold a majority in the German federal parliament ("Bundestag") and the government is therefore dependent on the approval of the opposing parties for many important decisions and legislative proposals.

In such situations, article 68 of the German constitution ("Grundgesetz") provides for the so-called vote of confidence ("Vertrauensfrage"). In times of government crisis, the Chancellor can call for a vote of confidence in the Bundestag, usually hoping for a positive result that would strengthen the current government. In cases of a negative outcome, the Chancellor can ask the Federal President to dissolve the Bundestag.

Article 68 has remained unchanged in the 75 years since the German Grundgesetz was established. Article 54 of the Weimar Constitution had already provided: “The Chancellor ("Reichskanzler") and the imperial ministers ("Reichsminister") require the confidence of the impirial parliament ("Reichstag") for the exercise of their office. Each of them must resign if the imperial parliament withdraws its confidence by express resolution.”

In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany since 1949, a vote of confidence has been requested five times. In three cases (Willy Brandt in 1972, Helmut Kohl in 1982 and Gerhard Schröder in 2005), the respective Chancellor was denied a vote of confidence and the Bundestag was dissolved. In two cases (Helmut Schmidt in 1982 and Gerhard Schröder in 2001), a majority of the Bundestag expressed confidence in the Bundeskanzler, enabling him to continue in office.

On December 11, 2024, Olaf Scholz exercised his right to a vote of confidence, which was rejected by the majority of members of the Bundestag on December 16. He then proposed to President Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag and schedule premature elections in February.

Meanwhile, as Donald Trump was officially inaugurated and moved back into the White House, where he immediately set about fulfilling as many of his campaign promises as quickly as possible, the year 2025 began with election campaigns in Germany.

While many of the U.S. President’s plans are causing concern around the world, albeit recent events and seemingly irreconcilable differences in dealing with the most recent events as well as with long-standing and well-known issues, the German people (or at least the more optimistic among us) are still trying to believe in and hope for a strong, stable, rational and united government that will be up to the national and global challenges that are unfortunately likely to intensify in the years to come. Let's stay optimistic!